All posts by Michael Lamonato

Bahrain Grand Prix 2018

10 Apr 2018

Race 2 -57 Laps – 5.412km per lap – 308.238km race distance – medium tyre wear

Bahrain GP F1 Strategy Report Podcast – our host Michael Lamonato is joined by Jack Nicholls from the BBC F1.

DUEL IN THE DESERT: VETTEL BEATS MERCEDES IN THRILLING BAHRAIN GP

Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel openly admitted that luck played a significant part in delivering victory at the season-opening Australian Grand Prix, but in Bahrain only grit and driving nous got the Scuderia over the line against championship rival Mercedes.

Ferrari2

THE BACKGROUND

Pirelli has been using new race simulation software to better predict the performance of its tyres at any given race track with the stated aim of creating races delicately balanced between one and two stops to create strategic intrigue.

In Bahrain, naturally aided in part by the ease of overtaking around the Sakhir circuit, Pirelli aced it, with the selection of medium, soft and supersoft tyres delivering a rich combination of different strategies.

Interesting was that free practice suggested Mercedes held none of the advantages it enjoyed in Australia, with the fight at the front closely matched between the German marque, Ferrari and Red Bull Racing.

However, as has been the case in the past few seasons, the hard-compound tyres, particularly the mediums and softs, have been favourites of the silver cars, meaning these compounds were likely to form the spine of Mercedes’s strategy.

This meant a one-stop race was the natural Mercedes preference, especially given Lewis Hamilton was demoted to ninth on the grid with a gearbox change penalty.

Would Ferrari be fast enough to two-stop around the one-stopping Mercedes cars? Well, yes and no.

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THE DECISIVE MOMENTS

By lap eight Hamilton had climbed from ninth and fourth, putting himself in podium contention. Both Red Bull Racing cars had also retired by this early stage, creating a straight Ferrari-Mercedes duel.

The decisive moment came on lap 18, when Vettel was the first to pit, Ferrari noting that Bottas had closed to within a tenth of a second of being within undercut range — than distance from which Bottas would’ve been able to and use his fresh tyres advantage to keep ahead of Vettel when the German responded on the following lap.

Indeed Mercedes seemed to deploy its mechanics into the pit lane, only to withdraw them when Vettel arrived for his stop — whether this was a genuine undercut attempt or a ploy to force Ferrari to pit Sebastian is up for debate.

Either way, this committed Vettel and, later, Raikkonen to two-stop races, and Mercedes opted to counter with a one-stop strategy.

It became clear by mid-distance that Hamilton had strong pace on the medium compound, which the team spent a lot of time with during the preseason, and the Briton could keep within Vettel’s pit window, meaning Sebastian would’ve had to pass both Bottas and Hamilton to regain the lead after his second stop.

When Raikkonen retired on lap 35 after a botched pit stop to push one of the two Mercedes to follow, Vettel had little choice but to gamble his race lead on maintaining his worn-out soft-compound tyres.

His 39-lap stint was easily the longest for the yellow-stiped tyre and longer even than Bottas’s ambitiously long 37-stint on the far more durable mediums, making his masterful win even more impressive.

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GASLY AND ERICSSON DRIVERS OF THE DAY

Pierre Gasly cheekily shouted over team radio, “Now we can fight!”, mimicking the words used by McLaren’s Fernando Alonso in Australia, which were then a tacit reference to his team ditching Honda for Renault.

In Bahrain Toro Rosso-Honda made good on its preseason form after an embarrassing power unit failure in Melbourne by having both cars outqualify both McLarens and having Pierre Gasly easily outpace the British constructor in the race, finishing fourth to McLaren’s seventh and eighth.

Gasly battled Haas’s Kevin Magnussen for the race, with the fight largely being decided in the middle stint, when the Frenchman was quicker on the softs than the Dane was on the supersofts, notwithstanding Kevin having to deal with some traffic. They reversed their compounds for their final stints, but Gasly maintained his 12-seconds advantage to the flag.

Marcus Ericsson, on the other hand, largely drove his own race to ninth place, with the Swede being the only driver outside the top three to use the one-stop strategy.

Ericsson’s lap-23 stop from softs to mediums came after all bar Hamilton had made their first tyre changes, and he tactically allowed some of the obviously faster cars past him, notably Nico Hulkenberg, Fernando Alonso and Stoffel Vandoorne, to ensure he had the tyre life to make it to the finish.

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ALONSO GETS LOST IN TRAFFIC

Fernando Alonso spent his race bottled behind Nico Hulkenberg’s Renault in seventh and sixth places despite McLaren pulling the undercut trigger with what should have been a serviceable margin.

Alonso came into the pits to change from softs to medium on lap 14 while trailing the German by just 1.756 seconds. Hulkenberg pitted one lap later to cover him and, despite setting a slower out-lap, he managed maintain position.

The McLaren-Renault wasn’t able to power its way past the works car, and when both stopped for supersoft tyres on lap 39, the duel ended in a stalemate.

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Tyre data

Courtesy of Pirelli Motorsport

Pirelli1 Pirelli2

27 Mar 2018

With

Michael Lamonato

Michael Lamonato

Rob James

Rob James

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Episode 1 (2018) – Australian Grand Prix

Our host Michael Lamonato is joined by Rob James from the Box of Neutrals Podcast to talk through the details of round 1 of the season.Did Mercedes lose Hamilton the Grand Prix? What would it take for Dan usurp the Aussie cricket team on the front page?

Our guest Rob James
Our guest Rob James

If you like the podcast, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts.

For full written report about the strategy plays in this race, and detailed data (including all the stints and tyre choices) click here. All of our previous F1 Strategy Report Podcasts are here.

Contact us on twitter @strategyreport. or at http://www.f1strategyreport.com/

Australian Grand Prix 2018

27 Mar 2018

Race 1 – 58 Laps – 5.303km per lap – 307.574km race distance – low tyre wear

Australian GP F1 Strategy Report Podcast – our host Michael Lamonato is joined by Rob James from the Box of Neutrals Podcast.

THIRD TIME’S NOT A CHARM: HOW MERCEDES LOST HAMILTON THE AUSTRALIAN GP

For the third time in a row Lewis Hamilton failed to convert an Australian Grand Prix pole position into victory, and for the second time in succession it was a tactical error that left the Mercedes driver in the lurch.

Aust1-2000

 

THE BACKGROUND

While Pirelli’s 2017 tyres were necessarily conservative, for 2018 the Italian tyre company has made every compound one step softer — last year’s soft became this year’s medium et cetera — and will introduce a new ‘hypersoft’ tyre compound to better cater for all 21 circuits on the calendar.

The aim is to offer a combination of compounds at each race that can generate equally fast one-stop and two-stop races, thereby promoting more strategic variation.

Unfortunately the Australian Grand Prix proved a staid one-stop race regardless. Despite bringing the ultrasoft, supersoft and soft compounds, degradation around the street circuit was low, and the difficulty cars have following and overtaking on the Albert Park track meant teams were always going to prioritise track position.

THE DECISIVE MOMENT

In many respects the key moment of the race came in qualifying when Valtteri Bottas binned his car in the opening moments of Q3. He started 15th after serving a five-place gearbox penalty, the result being his teammate, Lewis Hamilton, was left to defend his pole position from Ferrari teammates Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen all on his own.

Ferrari was always going to use its numerical advantage against Hamilton, and it did so by stopping Raikkonen, who started second, early on lap 18 with the intention of allowing Vettel, then third, to run towards the ideal lap-28 one-stop window. Mercedes had little choice but to cover Raikkonen, pitting Hamilton on lap 19 and maintaining the lead.

Hamilton still had the race in hand. Raikkonen wasn’t a threat and Vettel was comfortably within reach, certainly enough for Hamilton to keep within his virtual safety car window — or so Mercedes thought.

The virtual safety car window is the gap required by a driver to make a pit stop under VSC conditions and still maintain track position. Mercedes had calculated this gap in Melbourne to be around 15 seconds, and Hamilton was trailing Vettel by 11.306 seconds before the VSC was triggered and the German made his stop.

When Vettel left pit lane with the lead, however, Mercedes was forced to admit that it had somehow made a miscalculation, with Toto Wolff conceding that his team didn’t understand how its strategy software returned incorrect information.

With Vettel on newer tyres and with the all-important track position, recovering the lead was always going to be a tall order, and Hamilton had to settle for second place.

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THE VSC RETURNED SOME BIG WINNERS — AND LOSERS

When a safety car — virtual or otherwise — arrives at around a pit stop window, the chance of a big win or big loss increases significantly.

Sebastian Vettel was obviously one such winner, as was Daniel Ricciardo, who made his stop without falling behind Fernando Alonso. Alonso also gained advantage by keeping ahead of Max Verstappen, and Valtteri Bottas’s charge from 15th on the grid was helped by not having to pit back into traffic.

On the other hand, Renault was a major loser, with Nico Hulkenberg and Carlos Sainz losing a net five places after they pitted on laps 24 and 22 respectively. Force India was also unable to capitalise on the virtual safety car, having already stopped Sergio Perez and Esteban Ocon on laps 24 and 23.

BOTTAS MAKES A BIG RECOVERY…

Valtteri Bottas recovered from P15 to eighth, scoring four points, but it was slow going for the Finn. He made three overtaking manoeuvres, made up two places from Haas’s retirements and jumped two cars in the pit stops. His own lap 25 stop, made just as the VSC was triggered, meant he didn’t fall back into traffic while making his tyre change.

…BUT OVERTAKING REMAINS A PROBLEM

Albert Park is statistically the second most difficult track for overtaking, and it showed on Sunday, with only five on-track passes logged. Race organisers together with Formula One Management have considered circuit layout tweaks to improve overtaking, but they decided against it as the only possible changes to the public roads would have made little difference for the cost.

The FIA implemented a third DRS zone for the first time this weekend, but it had little effect, and Ross Brawn, F1’s motorsport managing director, admitted that the current high-downforce cars are the sport’s biggest problem when it comes to side-by-side racing.

Brawn has set up a panel with the FIA to design a new generation of regulations that will allow drivers to follow and pass more easily, especially on older or narrow circuits that are no longer conducive to overtaking, but this work won’t come to fruition until 2021.

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Tyre data

Courtesy of Pirelli Motorsport

Pirelli1 Pirelli2

19 Mar 2018

With

Michael Lamonato

Michael Lamonato

Dr. Andrew Phillips

Dr. Andrew Phillips

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Crunching the winter testing numbers (2018 Pre-season 2)

Our host Michael Lamonato is joined by Dr. Andrew Phillips – author of F1Metrics to take a deep dive into the timing data from the 2018 pre-season testing.

Our guest Dr Andrew Phillips
Our guest Dr Andrew Phillips

If you like the podcast, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts.

All of our previous F1 Strategy Report Podcasts are here.

Contact us on twitter @strategyreport. or at http://www.f1strategyreport.com/